It is important to acknowledge the path forward does not always take us where we would like to go. We as a country and society do not always have as much control over our fate as we tend to believe. Read More.

“So goes January, so goes the year.” If the old adage is true, this could mean the longest bull market in history is coming to an end. And from a political perspective, it couldn’t come at a worse time.

The outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in China has shaken the global asset markets—and with good reason. The coronavirus has the potential of being the ‘trigger’ which will push the world into a global depression. Read More.

After slumping into year-end, Regional Fed surveys have (surprisingly) exploded higher this month with Richmond and Philly surveys spiking almost by the most on record. Today’s Chicago PMI was expected to follow suit – though less excitedly – with a modest gain but instead it missed massively, plunging to its lowest since Dec 2015 – printing 42.9 vs 48.9 expectations. Read More.

The coronavirus has all the hallmarks of a true Black Swan event. In addition to presenting a major public health risk, the coronavirus is already doing serious economic damage. China, the world’s second-largest economy, is essentially “closed for business” right now.

After a mixed December (headline flat, current up, future down), analysts expected the ongoing ramp in stocks to have lifted the Conference Board consumer confidence survey in January. Both present situation and futures expectations jumped, lifting the headline to its highest since August. Read More.

A black swan event is a term used on Wall Street that refers to a rare and unpredictable occurrence that is beyond what is expected and has severe consequences. It’s derived from European explorers who had previously thought that all swans were white and only white, as that was all they knew. They were overcome with shock and confusion when Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh discovered the existence of black swans in Australia. Read More.

Finally, somebody at Davos is talking about something other than the weather. Davos’s wealthiest denizens have reportedly been laser-focused on the issue of climate change and it’s potential impact on the global economy and markets this year – and the Trump vs. Greta drama has only stoked interest – but apparently at least one of the hundreds of reports combing the town’s ritzy resorts has found a couple of bankers willing to discuss what’s really bothering the industry. Read More.

While he clearly did not factor in for the slight possibility that Armageddon may have started when an unknown connoisseur ate bat soup in Wuhan, confirming that a black bat was more unpredictable than a black swan…

… Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett is starting to look at the exit signs.

Having been correct in his late-2019 prediction that the market meltup will take the S&P500 to 3,333 (however not by March 3, but rather mid-January), Hartnett summarizes the current sentiment as follows: sell-side all “melt-up bullish”, buy-side all “it’s a bit toppy” and notes that as his former bullishness is fades, he “would buy puts as SPX approaches 3,500 (PE 20x).” Read More.

There are two subjects that the mainstream media seems specifically determined to avoid discussing these days when it comes to the economy – the first is the problem of falling global demand for goods and services; they absolutely refuse to acknowledge the fact that demand is going stagnant and will conjure all kinds of rationalizations to distract from the issue. The other subject is the debt bubble, the corporate debt bubble in particular. Read More.

One day this bull market will end and the age of the central banking enabled debt bubble will be exposed for the hubris that it is and all the sins of “potential side effects” that central bankers warn about but never do anything about will come back to haunt all of us. It’ll be the age of the great unwind. Nobody will tell us in the moment when it peaks and I suspect it will not start with a bang, rather a whimper, but only end with a bang. Read More.

One of the striking things about bull markets is that they often end in confident exuberance, while simultaneously deteriorating from the inside. We’ve certainly observed this sort of selectivity during the past year. The market advance in 2019 fully recovered the market losses of late-2018, fueled by a wholesale reversal of Fed policy, hopes for a “phase one” trade deal, and as noted below, a bit of confusion about what actually constitutes “quantitative easing.” Read More.

While President Trump was touting the economy during his speech at Davos on Tuesday — Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones sat down with CNBC’s Squawk Box at the conference and warned: “We are in the craziest monetary fiscal mix in history. It’s so explosive. It defines imagination.” Read More.