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07/14/19 – Tyler Durden: A Bearish Morgan Stanley Doubles Down: Why The Bank Sees The S&P Falling Back

For the past 18 months our call on US equities has been very consistent. After a massive bull run from April 2013 to January 2018, we suggested the US equity market was about to enter a multi-year consolidation during which the S&P 500 would trade in a wide range between 2400-3000. Since then, that range has defined the price action well with the lows in December coming in around 2350 and several attempts at 3000 on the upside that ultimately failed. We now find ourselves at the upper end of that resistance level once again, as shown in Exhibit 1. Just like in January and September last year, there appears to be growing excitement about the possibility of a break out above 3000. Read More.

07/08/19 – Tyler Durden: Goldman Admits The Fed Has Lost Control

Back in January, when Chair Powell unexpectedly U-turned on months of hawkish policy and shocked traders when he said that contrary to what he had said just two weeks prior during the December FOMC press conference, the Fed could be “patient”, rate hikes could, in fact “pause”, and the Fed’s balance sheet reduction is not in fact on “autopilot”, the Powell Put finally emerged for the first time, and the result has been a torrid rally ever since, and the best first half market performance in decades. Read More.

07/01/19 – Gregor Stuart Hunter: Roubini Lives Up to ‘Dr. Doom’ Alias With Global Recession Call

The U.S.-China trade war and a spike in oil prices from geopolitical tensions have the potential to push the world into recession next year, according to renowned doomsayer Nouriel Roubini.

“It’s a scary time for the global economy,” the head of Roubini Macro Associates, sometimes known as “Dr. Doom,” said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. He said he expects a recessionary shock to materialize next year. Read More.

06/29/19 – Yun Li (CNBC): 80% of the stock market is now on autopilot

It’s no secret that machines are taking up a bigger and bigger share of investing, but the extent of their influence is approaching shocking proportions. It is as high as 80%, according to one major investing firm.

Passive investments such as index funds and exchange-traded funds control about 60% of the equity assets, while quantitative funds, those which rely on trend-following models instead of fundamental research from humans, now account for 20% of the market share, according to estimates from J.P. Morgan. Read More.

06/28/19 – Tyler Durden: Paul Singer Warns A 40% Market Crash Is Coming

Earlier today, in a stark reversal from its traditionally cheerful demeanor, a Goldman Sachs strategist warned that “purely based on elevated equity valuations, as measured by the S&P 500 Shiller P/E, and current growth, according to our US Current Activity Indicator (CAI), the risk of an equity drawdown of more than 10%”, i.e. a sharp market drop, or for lack of a better word, crash, “is the highest since the GFC.” Read More.

06/25/19 – Rebecca Ungarino: Global stocks will sink into a bear market if trade tensions escalate, UBS predicts Jun. 25, 2019, 12:12 PM Reuters Trade tensions raging on unabated will most likely push global stocks into a bear market, UBS predicts. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s planned meeting at the G20 summit this week to discuss trade matters comes as US stocks trade near their all-time highs. Visit Markets Insider’s homepage for more stories. Should the trade war between the US and China continue without a resolution, or see an escalation, global stock markets will most likely fall into a bear market, UBS says. “Continued trade tensions will likely see global equities down roughly 20% from current levels,” a team of strategists and economists led by Arend Kapteyn wrote in a Monday report.

Should the trade war between the US and China continue without a resolution, or see an escalation, global stock markets will most likely fall into a bear market, UBS says. “Continued trade tensions will likely see global equities down roughly 20% from current levels,” a team of strategists and economists led by Arend Kapteyn wrote in a Monday report. Read More.

06/19/19 – Jesse Colombo: Why The Odds Of A Recession In The Next Year Are Even Higher Than You Think

I recently wrote a piece that was widely read called “Why You Should Not Underestimate The Severity Of The Coming Recession.” In that piece, I argued that the odds of a recession in the not-too-distant future were increasing rapidly and that mainstream economists are incorrect for assuming that it will be a mere ebb of the business cycle rather than a more powerful economic crisis like we experienced in 2008 or even worse. Read More.