Bear markets are usually not as scary as people think. Don’t give up hope.
I’m referring to what many retirees are most afraid of: Running out of money before they die. An Allianz Life survey found that far more retirees are afraid of outliving their money than they are of dying—61% to 39%. This ever-present background fear is especially rearing its ugly head right now, given the bear market that to many came out of nowhere. Read More.
After a year of tapering, the Fed’s balance sheet finally captured the market’s attention during the last three months of 2018.
LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) – Global growth is slowing and the world economy is headed for a recession in 2019 unless something happens to give it renewed momentum.
The OECD’s composite leading indicator fell to just 99.3 points in November, its lowest since October 2012, and down from a peak of 100.5 at the end of 2017. Read More.
When we think of “economic collapse” our imaginations usually lead us immediately to the desperation we’ve witnessed in places like Venezuela or Greece. We think of starvation, a complete lack of medical care, and waves of suicide by people who simply can’t survive. We imagine an apocalyptic societal breakdown that is immediately visible. Read More.
Don’t get too comfortable with the idea of a sustained rebound in U.S. stocks this year. There are multiple reasons to prepare for a full-blown cyclical bear market in the S&P 500 Index. Read More.
Throughout the market sell-off of the past few months, I’ve been showing key technical levels to help determine if further downside was likely or if the rout was truly over. In late-December, the S&P 500 broke below an important support zone from approximately 2,550 to 2,650 (which formed at the early-2018 lows), which represented a very important technical breakdown. The post-Christmas market bounce, so far, is simply a re-test of this zone, which is now a resistance. Read More.
Economists warn that a catastrophe is in the making if the partial government closure continues for weeks or months. The country would face an economic hellscape if the government shutdown lasts “months or even years,” as the president has suggested it might, experts tell NBC News. Read More.
Over the weekend, we pointed out a concerning statistic: it’s not the rate hikes that stifle economic growth and send stocks sliding that traditionally telegraph the start of a recession – it’s the first rate cut following a tightening cycle that is usually the trigger. Case in point: the last three recessions were all preceded with the Fed cutting, i.e., the Fed loosened policy within three months before the previous three recessions, cutting by 0.25% in 1991, 1.5% in 2001 and 0.5% in 2007. Read More.
In what has become a perennial exercise before every debt-ceiling showdown since at least Obama’s first term (when S&P did the unthinkable and cut the US’s coveted AAA credit rating, exposing itself to extensive abuse by Tim Geithner), ratings agencies are starting to beat the credit-rating downgrade drum, with Fitch getting a jump on the competition Wednesday when its head of sovereign ratings warned that an enduring shutdown battle could negatively impact the negotiations over the debt ceiling, which could prompt Fitch to join S&P in eliminating its AAA rating for the US. Read More.
The case for a pending financial collapse is well grounded. Financial crises occur on a regular basis including 1987, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2007-08. That averages out to about once every five years for the past thirty years. There has not been a financial crisis for ten years so the world is overdue. It’s also the case that each crisis is bigger than the one before and requires more intervention by the central banks. Read More.
The world’s longest experiment with negative interest rates may end up lasting an entire decade.
Not until 2021 at the earliest will Danes have a chance to see positive rates again, according to Danske Bank. The country’s policy rate first dropped below zero in 2012. Read More.
In the starkest warning yet about the upcoming global recession, which some believe will hit in late 2019 or 2020 at the latest, the IMF warned that the leaders of the world’s largest countries are “dangerously unprepared” for the consequences of a serious global slowdown. The IMF’s chief concern: much of the ammunition to fight a slowdown has been exhausted and governments will find it hard to use fiscal or monetary measures to offset the next recession, while the system of cross-border support mechanisms — such as central bank swap lines — has been undermined, warned David Lipton, first deputy managing director of the IMF. Read More.
The Federal Reserve is propping up the market — and here’s the evidence
For years critics of U.S. central-bank policy have been dismissed as Negative Nellies, but the ugly truth is staring us in the face: Stock-market advances remain a game of artificial liquidity and central-bank jawboning, not organic growth. And now the jig is up. Read More.
With the end of 2018 marking the 40th anniversary of China opening up & reforming (and with an increasingly loud group of market participants questioning the foundations of China’s economic miracle – and more importantly, it’s future), Read More.
Stock markets are crashing all over the world, we are seeing extremely violent “flash crashes” in the forex marketplace, economic conditions are slowing down all over the globe, and fear is causing many investors to become extremely trigger happy. The stock market crash of 2018 wiped out approximately 12 trillion dollars in global stock market wealth, but things were supposed to calm down once we got into 2019. Read More.
Global debt has never been higher. It’s almost $250 Trillion. Obviously, the economic world that central banks have created are built on a house of sand. Central banks are socialistic institutions. They are monopolies created and sustained by governments. When the central banking house of cards comes down, it’ll be felt around the world. Read More and Watch the Video.
After the worst Christmas Eve in the history of the stock market, the Santa Clause rally came late. Markets bounced back in the short trading week after Christmas. The Dow started with a 1,000-plus point gain, then dropped nearly 600 points the next day, before rallying late to close in the green. Read More and Watch the Video.
Expect the Federal Reserve to hold off on rate hikes as fear of a financial crisis grows. One thing stands out in another day of wild swings in equity indices: The worst performing sectors in the S&P 500 today are, respectively, Residential Real Estate Investment Trusts (-3.7%), Industrial REITS (-3.5%) and Office REITS (-3.5%). Read More.
In his seminal tome – “Anatomy of the Bear – Lessons from Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms,” which should be required reading for advisors and professional investors, author Russell Napier provides comprehensive analysis of market where stocks cycle from overvalued to undervalued (14 years on average) coupled with chronological events which marked bear market bottoms of 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982. Read More.
It’s amazing what passes as a market these days.
Stocks rallied during the Christmas week, and the mainstream financial press would like you to believe bargain hunters swooped in after the weeks of heavy selling to grab some deals. The truth is there are very few actual people still evaluating the merits of publicly traded companies.
The markets are driven by programmed trading and central planning. The artificial nature of markets was on full display last week. Let’s walk through the series of events. Read More.
As stocks plunged toward their harrowing, bear-market lows earlier this month, Omega Advisors CEO Leon Cooperman infamously railed against algorithmic traders and HFT for creating distortions in the market that caused the cascading selloff (though, as we joked at the time, no fingers were pointed when stocks soared off the lows following a massive pension buy order). Read More.
The profound question which transcends all this day-to-day market drama over the holidays is the nature of the economic slowdown now occurring globally. This slowdown can be seen both inside and outside the US. In reviewing the laboratory of history — especially those experiments featuring severe asset inflation, unaccompanied by high official estimates of consumer price inflation — three possible “echoes” deserve attention in coming weeks and months. (History echoes rather than repeats!) Read More.