Today’s inflation print is key. After significant signs of cost pressures (PMIs all signaling record or near record rising prices) and commodity prices breaking out from multi-year downtrends, analysts did expect a bump in CPI but nothing overly concerning. Read More.
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Category: Bear Market News
Donald Trump is probably the luckiest presidential candidate in history to have lost an election. He doesn’t realise it yet as he suffers from a self-inflicted wound in the final moments of his presidency. Nor does Biden yet realise how unlucky he is to have won. But that will soon change as his presidency goes from crisis to crisis in all areas from monetary to fiscal to social and political. Very little will go right during his presidency. Read More.
Today, governments feel no need to bother with balanced budgets, much less surpluses, in times of prosperity. Read More.
01/11/21 – Tyler Durden: What Is The Yield On The 10Y That Will Burst The Stock Bubble? Here Is The Answer
Now that the deflation narrative which marked most of 2020 is dead and buried, and instead traders are focusing not only on breaking out 10Y nominal yields… Read More.
01/11/21 – Howard Wang: Yes, Bitcoin Is A Giant Bubble… But The Global Fiat System Is An Even Bigger Bubble
In December 2017 I wrote a paper titled “What causes asset bubbles” featuring the chart below. A few days later, Bitcoin prices peaked and fell 85% within a year. It seems Bitcoin is back. I believe we are in the midst of another bubble, but this time I am not confident in calling its top. My updated chart and thoughts are below. Read More.
Nearly 186 years ago to the day, on January 8, 1835, US President Andrew Jackson accomplished what no other American president has done before, or since: he paid off the national debt. Jackson was a staunch fiscal conservative. He despised banks, and, according to his biographer, he considered central banking “black magic”, and the national debt a “moral failing”. So he paid it all off– roughly $5 million. Read More.
In late December, in our recap of a “year like no other” for credit markets, we showed a stunning chart which perhaps best summarized the “insanity unleashed by central banks.” The chart in question showed that a record-high number of European IG (investment grade) bonds were trading with negative yields. Read More.
01/10/21 – Tyler Durden: Five Reasons Why Runaway Inflation Is Imminent According To Morgan Stanley:
Last Monday, we published the first weekly warm up note from Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson who in addition to warning that the “market is ripe for a drawdown” as the “risk/reward has deteriorated materially”, ( a prediction which has yet to pass) laid out his most contrarian view about 2021, namely that “the big surprise of 2021 could be higher inflation than many, including the Fed, expect. Read More.
Peter Schiff appeared on the Lions of Liberty podcast with Marc Clair to look back at the Trump economy and ahead to what the Biden years might bring. Along the way, Peter and Marc talk about the stock market bubble, Peter’s move to Puerto Rico, the looming dollar collapse, and bitcoin. Read More.
The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. Featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behavior, I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great bubbles of financial history, right along with the South Sea bubble, 1929, and 2000. Read More.
Commentary on America’s overvalued stock market can be found pretty much everywhere these days. These arguments are compelling, and are becoming more so as stocks keep rising. The latest clue that we’re in yet another bubble is margin debt, which is money that investors borrow against their existing stocks to buy even more. Read More.
Commentary on America’s overvalued stock market can be found pretty much everywhere these days. These arguments are compelling, and are becoming more so as stocks keep rising. Read More.
Markets have extreme emotions. They can go from irrational exuberance—where it seems everyone is swinging from the chandeliers—to a bottom-of-the-barrel bear market where people don’t even want to look at the business section. Read More.
This year has been a slow-motion train wreck on many levels. Americans have understandably been so preoccupied with the election and the unprecedented violations of individual liberties in the name of fighting covid-19, that there hasn’t been much attention left for what the Federal Reserve and US Treasury have been up to. Read More.
Jerome Powell puts you in mind of the boy who killed both of his parents and then threw himself on the mercy of the court on the grounds that he was an orphan! That’s what JayPo essentially did in his presser yesterday while trying to explain that the most hideous equity market bubble in history is actually not that at all. Read More.
Extremes get more extreme until risk breaks out; then the reversal will be as extreme as the bubble expansion. What would happen if the Federal Reserve ceased to exist? We all know the answer: global markets would instantly collapse and the global financial system, now entirely dependent on Fed stimulus, intervention, manipulation, free money for financiers and endless printing of trillions of dollars out of thin air, would crash, leaving nothing but a steaming, fetid pile of corruption infested by the cockroaches scurrying around gobbling up the few crumbs left. Read More.
Right now happens to be an attractive time to do something stupid. What’s more, everyone’s doing it. Maybe you are too. Stock valuations and corporate earnings growth no longer appear to matter. Why not buy an S&P 500 index fund and let it ride? Or, better yet, why not buy shares of Nvidia? Read More.
Stay tuned as the battle of the SkyNet StockBots continues.
Between the Federal Reserve, Congress, and covid, navigating the business cycle is equivalent to sneaking through a house of mirrors. The stock market is making new highs as unemployment rates do the same. Thousands line up for free food and soon will do the same to be vaccinated. The nation’s governors tighten restrictions by the day while the Federal Reserve remains loose in its monetary operations. Read More.
Analyst, professional trader and financial writer Rick Ackerman likes gold and silver too, but not because he sees explosive price rises. He likes precious metals because they are solid core investments. They work well in inflation or deflation. They are rugged and will work no matter what comes. Ackerman thinks what is coming will be far worse than the Great Depression, “I call it the ‘Second Great Depression.’ . . .
The US Treasury market, supposed to be the supplier of the world’s risk-free assets, is facing a very educational 2021. As Mark Cabana, head of US rates strategy for BofA Securities, says: “There is going to be a train wreck at the front end of the [Treasury] curve next year. There is way too much cash chasing too little paper.” Read More.
Recently, Ed Yardeni discussed his view of why another “Roaring 20’s” may lie ahead. However, while I certainly can appreciate his always “bullish optimism,” there is a significant fundamental problem with his view. Read More.
12/07/20 – Tyler Durden: “More Dangerous Than You Think” – Global Stock Market Cap Tops $100 Trillion For First Time Ever
One hundred trillion dollars… that’s a 1 followed by 14 zeros! That is the current market capitalization of global stock markets – a level never before seen in history. Read More.
12/07/20 – Kristoffer Mousten Hansen: Central Bank Digital Currencies and the War on (Physical) Cash
Twenty twenty is a year dominated by bad news. While governments around the world have imposed extremely destructive restrictions on economic life and promise a “Great Reset” that amounts to a great leap forward into the socialist future, central bankers have advanced plans for implementing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Read More.