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11/19/18 – CNBC: This chart is proof ‘buy the dip’ is dead

One of Wall Street’s most famous proverbs of this bull market is backfiring. “Buy the dip,” or picking up a stock or the whole market when they sell off, isn’t working for the first time in 16 years, according to analysis from Morgan Stanley. The investment bank looked at the average return for the S&P 500 if the previous week was negative and found that this year, there was no rebound. Read More.

11/19/18 – Tyler Durden: Why Bank Of America Expects Stocks To Hit “Big Lows” In The Next Few Months

Late in January, just as the market was enjoying an unprecedented melt-up ahead of the February VIXplosion which sent the S&P on its first of two corrections in 2018, Bank of America published a warning report, titled “Our Sell Signal Was Triggered On Jan 30, S&P 2686 Is Next” in which chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett explained why he was convinced that a drop as much as 12% was imminent in the coming weeks. He was spot on, with the S&P tumbling within days, hitting hit target and then some. Read More.

11/17/18 – Lance Roberts: Bear Market Growl Grows Louder

Several months ago, I penned an article about the problems with “passive indexing” and specifically the problem of the “algorithms” that are driving roughly 80% of the trading in the markets. To wit:

“When the ‘robot trading algorithms’ begin to reverse (selling rallies rather than buying dips), it will not be a slow and methodical process, but rather a stampede with little regard to price, valuation, or fundamental measures as the exit will become very narrow.” Read More.

11/16/18 – -Lance Roberts: Why This Isn’t “THE” Bear Market…Yet

After two significant corrections during 2018, this has to be the beginning of a “bear market,” right?

It certainly is possible given the headwinds that are starting to weigh on corporate outlooks such as ongoing trade wars, weaker revenue growth, a strong dollar, and higher interest rates. However, despite these concerns, there are three things which suggest the necessary psychological change for a more meaningful “mean reverting” event has yet to occur. Read More.

11/14/18: Stock-Market Supercomputer to Launch With Glitches

WASHINGTON—A data warehouse created to track all U.S. stock and options orders is expected to launch on Thursday with less functionality than previously anticipated including limits on how many users can search it, according to people familiar with the matter.

The Securities and Exchange Commission ordered the creation of the Consolidated Audit Trail in 2012 after regulators found they didn’t have enough information to explain a sudden market decline, known as the “flash crash,” that occurred in May 2010. One SEC commissioner, Kara Stein, has said the database could become the “Hubble telescope of securities markets.” Read More.

11/14/18 – Peter Schiff: Investors Oblivious as Multiple Bubbles Pop

Very Negative Technical Action

We had another roller coaster ride in the stock market today, with the Dow Jones ending down about 200 points, but that was well off the lows of the day. I think we were down about 350 points, or close to it, at the lows. But, more interesting, we were up over 200 points earlier this morning. So this is very negative technical action, when you have these rallies and then close negative. Read More.

11/14/18 – Brandon Smith: The Fed Will Continue Tightening Until Everything Breaks

Around three years ago, in September 2015, I wrote an article titled ‘The Real Reasons Why The Fed Will Hike Interest Rates‘ in which I predicted that the Federal Reserve, in the face of criticism, would soon pursue a program of interest rate hikes into economic weakness. I argued that this plan would be somewhat similar to what the Fed did in the early 1930’s; an action that prolonged the Great Depression for many more years. So far, my prediction has proven to be correct. Read More.

11/14/18 – Tyler Durden: A $30 Billion Computer Is About To Start Selling Stocks

One by one, human traders – having suffered devastating losses in the past 11 months – are giving up hope on stocks, now that BTFD no longer works. And, in a disturbing development, so are the robots.

A $30 billion computer, run by UBS’ wealth management which oversees $2.4 trillion in capital and entrusted by some of the world’s richest, is poised to underweight stocks as real money and systematic investors pare risk amid flagging bull-market momentum. According to Andreas Koester, head of global asset allocation at UBS Wealth, the quantitative-investing platform is close to trimming its equity holdings to 20% from a neutral 50%, a shift that would lead to an avalanche of selling as hundreds of billions in stocks are forced to find a new home. Read More.

11/14/18 – Tyler Durden: A $30 Billion Computer Is About To Start Selling Stocks

One by one, human traders – having suffered devastating losses in the past 11 months – are giving up hope on stocks, now that BTFD no longer works. And, in a disturbing development, so are the robots.

A $30 billion computer, run by UBS’ wealth management which oversees $2.4 trillion in capital and entrusted by some of the world’s richest, is poised to underweight stocks as real money and systematic investors pare risk amid flagging bull-market momentum. According to Andreas Koester, head of global asset allocation at UBS Wealth, the quantitative-investing platform is close to trimming its equity holdings to 20% from a neutral 50%, a shift that would lead to an avalanche of selling as hundreds of billions in stocks are forced to find a new home. Read More.

11/13/18 – Lance Roberts: Technically Speaking: Major Markets Are All Flashing Warning Signs

In this past weekend’s newsletter, I touched on the outcome of the mid-term elections and why it would likely not be as optimistic as the mainstream media was portraying it to be. To wit:

“It is likely little will get done as the desire to engage in conflict and positioning between parties will obliterate any chance for potential bipartisan agenda items such as infrastructure spending. Read More.

11/13/18 – Jesse Colombo: These Are The Headlines You See In A Bubble

The world had gone completely startup crazy over the last several years. Spurred by soaring tech stock prices (a byproduct of the U.S. stock market bubble) and the frothy Fed-driven economic environment, countless entrepreneurs and VCs are looking to start the next Facebook or Google. Following in the footsteps of the dot-com companies in the late-1990s, startups that actually turn a profit are the rare exceptions. Unfortunately, today’s tech startup bubble is going to end just like the dot-com bubble did: scores of startups are going to fold and founders, VCs, and investors are going to lose their shirts. Read More.

11/11/18 – Charles Hugh Smith: Understanding the Global Recession of 2019

Isn’t it obvious that repeating the policies of 2009 won’t be enough to save the system from a long-delayed reset?

2019 is shaping up to be the year in which all the policies that worked in the past will no longer work. As we all know, the Global Financial Meltdown / recession of 2008-09 was halted by the coordinated policies of the major central banks, which lowered interest rates to near-zero, bought trillions of dollars of bonds and iffy assets such as mortgage-backed securities, and issued unlimited lines of credit to insolvent banks, i.e. unlimited liquidity. Read More.

11/12/18 – Lance Roberts: The Economic Consequences Of Debt

Not surprisingly, my recent article on “The Important Role Of Recessions” led to more than just a bit of debate on why “this time is different.” The running theme in the debate was that debt really isn’t an issue as long as our neighbors are willing to support continued fiscal largesse.

As I have pointed out previously, the U.S. is currently running a nearly $1 Trillion dollar deficit during an economic expansion. This is completely contrary to the Keynesian economic theory. Read More.

11/11/18 – Tyler Durden: Goldman ‘Bear Market Indicator’ Nears Record High: “No Limit To The Stupidity Of Wall Street”

“Get used to this kind of volatility,” warns Hussman Funds’ John Hussman in his latest comment.

“Unfortunately, the moment interest rates hit zero, [historical risk and valuation] limits vanished, and preemptively responding to speculative extremes became terrifically detrimental.”

“Presently, neither valuations nor internals are favorable, and that is what opens up a trap door under the market.” Read More.

 

11/07/18 – Tyler Durdan: World’s Largest Asset Manager Warns: The Dollar’s Days As Global Reserve Currency Are Numbered

Have BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Russian President Vladimir Putin been comparing notes?

In comments that sound eerily similar to a warning issued by Putin, who warned during a speech last month that the US risked undermining the dollar’s reserve currency status with its sanctions regime, the CEO of the world’s largest asset-management firm said Tuesday during a panel discussion at the New Economic Forum in Singapore that the US dollar’s status as the world’s dominant currency wouldn’t last forever. Read More.

11/06/18 – Jim Rickards: The United States Is Going Broke

Those who focus on the U.S. national debt (and I’m one of them) keep wondering how long this debt levitation act can go on.

The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is at the highest level in history (106%), with the exception of the immediate aftermath of the Second World War. At least in 1945, the U.S. had won the war and our economy dominated world output and production. Today, we have the debt without the global dominance. Read More.

11/04/18 – Daniel LaCalle: What Will the Next Financial Crisis Look Like?

With the 10th anniversary of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy having just passed and the recent stock market drop, the fear of a new financial crisis is palpable.

And those fears are justified. The question is not whether there will be a crisis, but when? In the past 50 years, we have seen more than eight global crises and many more local ones, so the likelihood of another one is quite high. Not just because of the years passed since the 2007 crisis, but because the factors that typically lead to a global crisis are all lining up. Read More.

11/01/18: Reuters: What the looming bear arket might look like

LONDON (Reuters) – Let’s assume the correction currently underway on Wall Street turns into an outright bear market, and the main U.S. equity indices rack up peak-to-trough losses of at least 20 percent. What kind of bear market can we expect?

All bear markets are different, but they are less frequent than bull markets and, on average, much shorter. They can also be extremely damaging. Read More.