Category: Bear Market News

Jim Grant recently appeared on the Santelli Exchange on CNBC and the conversation quickly turned to this notion that “intellectuals” have the wherewithal to run the economy. Watch the Video.

(Bloomberg Opinion) — I first suggested the U.S. economy was headed toward a recession more than a year ago, and now others are forecasting the same. I give a business downturn starting this year a two-thirds probability. Read More.

Several years ago, we first described Horseman Capital’s Global Fund, as “the world’s most bearish hedge fund” for a simple reason: of all existing asset managers, Horseman may be the one with the biggest and longest net short in history (during the longest bull market in history). Indeed, as shown in the chart below, after last going net short in 2011, Horseman has gone over 7 years being net bearish the market, with its latest net exposure a whopping -88.14%, and a gross short position an unprecedented 160%. Read More.

For a few years now, since at least 2014, the phrase “global economic reset” has been circulating in the financial world. This phrase is used primarily by globalist institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to describe an event in which the current system as we know it will either die out or evolve into a new system where “multilateralism” will become the norm. The reset is often described in an ambiguous way. IMF banking elites will usually mention the end results of the shift, but they say little about the process to get there. Read More.

The question whether Beijing will tolerate another stock market bubble – one which it appeared to carefully cultivate until now – got an answer on Friday when Chinese stocks crashed, tumbling the most in five months. And it all started with a single sell rating.

The Shanghai Composite tumbled 4.4% to close below the key 3,000 point level, ending an 8 week rally, with the Shenzhen Composite and Chinext all following. Read More.

Just days after Goldman warned that the Goldilocks rally is over, a selloff swept across world markets with global stocks set for their biggest weekly drop since December, after a plunge in Chinese stocks set the tone for global markets on Friday, with equities in Europe sliding alongside U.S. futures amid growing concerns about the state of US-China trade negotiations and global growth following yesterday’s ECB shocking GDP downgrade. The yen climbed with gold as investors once again scrambled to buy safe Read More.

Love it or hate it, the potency of the Trump Administration is on the wane, soon to be stuck in the mire of the Swamp it has deepened instead of drained, while the economy falls into one hell of a recession — so claims former Regan-era Cabinet member and Congressman David Stockman. Read More.

The OECD recently published a paper called “Corporate Bond Markets in a Time of Unconventional Monetary Policy,” which showed that outstanding global corporate debt has surged over the past decade in both advanced and emerging economies alike. Total outstanding corporate debt increased by 70% from $5.97 trillion in 2008 to $10.17 trillion in 2018 in advanced economies, and has soared 395% to $2.78 trillion in emerging economies.Read More.

Confirming last week’s advance goods data which saw the biggest trade deficit on record in December, moments ago the BEA reported that the U.S. trade deficit soared to a 10-year high of $621 billion in 2018, jumping by $68.8 billion, or 12.5 percent in the year, and crushing Trump’s pledges to reduce it, as tax cuts boosted domestic demand for imports while the strong dollar and retaliatory tariffs weighed on exports. Read More.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy slowed in the final three months of last year to an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent, the slowest pace since the beginning of 2018, as the government shutdown and other factors took a toll on growth. Economists believe growth has slowed even more in the current quarter. Read More.

One week after PIMCO’s chief investment officer of global credit, Mark Kiesel, told Bloomberg that now is the time to start selling risk as “the market has priced in a lot of good news right now” and with all major asset classes overbought, the Pimco CIO “would be tilting the portfolio towards high quality Treasuries, agencies, investment-grade corporate bonds, owning less high-yield and owning less levered companies” adding that “this has been a situation where the rising tide has lifted all boats”, another financial icon has echoed this call. In its latest Global Perspectives note, private equity giant KKR, has issued a similar warning on publicly traded stocks: It’s time to sell the rally. Read More.

Investors are waking up to a rumble on the geopolitical front, as tensions heat up between two big nuclear powers, India and Pakistan. Read More.

“We need to wake up and smell the roses here…”

That’s the ominous-sounding warning from David Stockman, the so-called “Father of Reaganomics,” as he told Fox Business’s Neil Cavuto this week that investors ought to get out of the market and retreat to the presumed safety of Treasury bills and cold, hard cash. Read More.

Just days after Warren Buffett lamented in his latest annual letter that prices for businesses possessing decent long-term prospects are “sky high”, an insider transaction-based model constructed by University of Michigan finance professor Nejat Seyhun predicts that the S&P 500 will be 3.9% lower in one year as a result of a recent surge in insider selling. Read More.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and wider US stock market have made extraordinary recoveries in 2019, but several equities analysts warn that stocks remain firmly in a bear market. Read More.

Though he missed the torrid rebound in stocks during the first six weeks of 2019 (US stocks have, by at least one measure, experienced their best start to a year since 1991, when Gundlach didn’t expect the rebound to start until later in the year), Doubleline Capital founder Jeffrey Gundlach’s warnings about the risks endemic to the US corporate debt market (and the ballooning deficit) still resonate with thousands of investors, who are warily approaching the end of the business cycle with a mounting sense of paranoia.Read More.

After 8 weeks of non stop rallying the bear mocking is back which is ironic. Why? Well, because bears are right. About what? Well, everything. Yes stock markets have been screaming higher in recent weeks on hopium and central banks turning dovish, but ironically that’s as a reaction to bears being right. How can that be? Read More.

The smart money is liquidating assets, paying off debt and moving capital into collateral that isn’t impaired by debt or speculative valuations. The Federal Reserve’s sudden return to “accommodative” dovishness in response to the stock market’s swoon telegraphs its intent to fire up QE once the recession kicks into gear. QE (quantitative easing) are monetary policies designed to ease borrowing and the issuance of credit, and to prop up assets such as stocks and real estate. Read More.

We’re way overdue for a sell-everything recession, one that the Fed will only make worse by pursuing its usual policies of lowering interest rates and goosing easy money. Read More.