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08/07/19 – Brandon Smith: This Is The Same Pattern The Fed Followed Before The Great Depression

There is immense confusion surrounding July’s Federal Reserve meeting and the rather insane aftermath that has been spurred on in the trade war. The Fed’s latest rate decision of a mere .25 bps cut was seen as “disappointing”, this was then followed by Jerome Powell’s public statements making it clear that this was only a mid-year “adjustment”, and that it was not the beginning of a rate cutting cycle and certainly not the beginning of renewed QE. Read More.

08/06/19 – Jpachim Fels: Interest Rates: Naturally Negative?

It is no longer absurd to think that the nominal yield on U.S. Treasury securities could go negative. Last week the German 30-year government bond yield dipped into negative territory for the first time ever. Around $14 trillion of outstanding bonds worldwide, or 25% of the market, now trade at negative yields, according to Bloomberg. What was once viewed as a short-term aberration – that creditors are paying debtors for taking their money – has already become commonplace in developed markets outside of the U.S. Read More.

08/05/19 – Michael Snyder: China Just Went Nuclear In The Trade War, And There Is No Turning Back Now

When will Americans start to wake up and realize what is happening? At the end of last week, President Trump announced that the U.S. would be imposing a 10 percent tariff on 300 billion dollars worth of Chinese imports, and that marked a dramatic escalation in our trade war with China. This move by Trump came as a total shock to Chinese officials, and global financial markets were thrown into a state of turmoil. Read More.

08/05/19 – Tyler Durden: Meanwhile, Inside The Plunge Protection Team: Chaos

It was almost ten years ago that we first profiled the most important trading desk in the world: not one situated in any of the (increasingly empty) massive trading floors of the world’s commercial banks located in either the financial district, midtown or Connecticut, but the one inside the 9th floor of 33 Liberty Street, the home New York Fed, the one which is also known in trader folklore as the “Plunge Protection Team.” Read More.

08/02/19 – Patti Domm: Perfect summer storm brewing for stock correction as trade war simmers and more Fed action awaited

With new risks from trade wars, stocks head into the final weeks of summer vulnerable to a pull back or even correction. The market was down sharply in the past week, buffeted first by disappointment over the Fed’s more hawkish-than-expected policy outlook. Then they were beaten down by fears President Donald Trump is starting a new front in the trade wars with China that is unlikely to end any time soon. Read More.

07/29/19 – Tyler Durden:

Since the 1950s, the Fed has embarked on 19 easing cycles, including the unconventional easing measures adopted during the course of this economic recovery, according to Deutsche Bank’s Binky Chadha. However of these, 9 or almost half, saw the economy eventually slip into recession; not only that, but the latest three rate cut resulted in a recession within 3 months of the first cut. Read More.

07/28/19 – Tyler Durden: Now, Compared To The Last Time The US Entered A Recession: It Couldn’t Be Worse

With the most important week for newsflow set to begin shortly, with the Fed expected to launch its first easing cycle in over a decade on July 31, the only question investors want answered is whether the Fed will cut rates by 25bps (while this is now fully priced in, many suggest it may be too little and lead to a sharp drop in risk assets) or by 50bps (which many see as overkill considering the relatively stable state of the US economy). Read More.

07/14/19 – Tyler Durden: A Bearish Morgan Stanley Doubles Down: Why The Bank Sees The S&P Falling Back

For the past 18 months our call on US equities has been very consistent. After a massive bull run from April 2013 to January 2018, we suggested the US equity market was about to enter a multi-year consolidation during which the S&P 500 would trade in a wide range between 2400-3000. Since then, that range has defined the price action well with the lows in December coming in around 2350 and several attempts at 3000 on the upside that ultimately failed. We now find ourselves at the upper end of that resistance level once again, as shown in Exhibit 1. Just like in January and September last year, there appears to be growing excitement about the possibility of a break out above 3000. Read More.