For the last several years, there has been a tremendous amount of activity and hype in the tech startup arena. In addition to the tens of thousands of startups that been founded in recent years, there are over three-hundred new “unicorn” startups that have valuations of $1 billion or more. Most of these unicorns came of out virtually nowhere and amassed tremendous valuations despite hemorrhaging cash, which is a tell-tale sign of a bubble. Read More.
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Category: Bear Market News
After a tumultuous week ended on an up note, it seemed U.S. stocks might escape the trade spat with only bruises. Then came Monday, when the biggest sell-off in four months more than doubled last week’s damage. Read More.
Jim has written a series of best selling books on these issues and in July 2019 will be releasing the latest one titled “Aftermath”. Jim kindly agreed to do a brief Q&A on the upcoming book which is just below. After that a brief summary will follow. Read More.
05/11/19 – Tyler Durden: “Get The Popcorn Ready” – Why The World’s Most Bearish Hedge Fund Thinks The Biggest Crash Is Almost Here
Conventional investing wisdom would have you believe that anybody who has remained bearish on global markets since the financial crisis has not only lost a boatload of money, but has missed out on the opportunity to cash in on one of the most torrid bull markets in recent memory. Read More.
You might be wondering why the Trump Administration is calling for rate cuts and money printing with all the good news about the economy. Read More.
05/03/2019 – David Brady: Third and Final Leg of Stock Market Crash in October or Sooner – Part 3 of 3
This is the final part in a series of articles explaining why I expect the third and final leg of the crash that began in October 2018 to occur in October 2019, or sooner, and see the S&P 500 fall ~30% to lower lows ~2100-2200. Until then I expect the S&P to slowly grind higher towards 3000-3150, short-term pullbacks aside. Read More.
“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
– Ludwig von Mises
Authored by former Lehman trader and current Bloomberg macro commentator Mark Cudmore.
U.S. Equity Optimism Is Starting To Look Misplaced
It’s time to turn bearish on the S&P 500, at least for a few weeks. The benchmark U.S. equity index just made a fresh record high, but it’s unlikely to keep ignoring warning signs coming from elsewhere in markets. Read More.
Last week we noted that something unusual had happened in the equity market volatility complex. Specifically, VIX had collapsed at its fastest pace in history. From over 36 to almost a 10 handle a week ago, the Fed’s flip-flop had re-energized the sell-vol-at-all-costs trade that has become the bread-and-butter of so many of newly-minted ‘gurus’ in this market. Read More.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had their highest closings on record Tuesday, regaining ground lost in last year’s rout. Stocks have flourished under a more accommodative Federal Reserve. In January, the central bank said it would hold interest rates steady, setting in motion the stock market’s strongest first-quarter run in more than two decades, as investors dialed back up their appetite for riskier assets like stocks. Read More.
This article explains why the US Government is ensnared in a debt trap from which there is no escape. Its finances are spiraling out of control. In the context of a rapidly slowing global economy, the budget deficit can only be financed by QE and bank credit expansion. Do not draw comfort from trade protectionism: it will not prevent the trade deficit increasing at the expense of domestic production, unless you believe there will be an unlikely resurgence in personal saving rates. We can now begin to see how the debt crisis will evolve, leading to the destruction of the dollar. Read More.
04/25/19 – Mark DeCambre: Man credited with calling the 2008 crisis says the next 20 years in the stock market will ‘break a lot of hearts’
Jeremy Grantham, an investor credited with predicting the 2000 and 2008 downturns, told CNBC on Thursday that investors should get inured to lackluster returns in the stock market for the next two decades, after a century of handsome gains. Read More.
04/24/19 – Tyler Durden: The Fed Is Resigned To Blowing The Biggest Bubble Ever Just To Extend The Expansion
Many have wondered if the Fed is ignorant to the problems their policy prescriptions cause, or if they’ve just resigned to walking society down the path to destruction knowingly. It increasingly looks like the latter. Indeed, the Fed may very well understand that its “lower for longer” policy is leading the economy and global markets straight into disaster. Read More.
Journalist and book author Charles Hugh Smith says the next market crash and recession will unfold like the bursting of the 2000 Dotcom bubble. Smith explains, “The bubble popped or deflated not for any crisis, but simply because there was too much debt, too much leverage, too much euphoria and unrealistic valuations. I think we are seeing that now in stocks, housing and a lot of other assets around the world. Read More.
04/23/19 – David Stockman: The S&P Index at 2900: The Biggest Wall Street/Fed Whopper Ever Told, Part 3
We have been cogitating on the gross anomaly of our time: Namely, the fact that pre-tax corporate profits of $2.2 trillion (annual rate) posted for Q4 2018 were actually a tad lower than they were 7 years ago in Q1 2012, yet the S&P 500 has gained 125% during the interim. Read More.
I’ve excerpted some quotes from economist John Williams’ most recent economic commentary No. 983-B (ShadowStats.com) which is of interest to every American. It predicts financial authorities will make a formal admission that the economy is in a state of collapse and in recession on or around September 2019. Williams made this prediction in 2004! The announcement would be an admission of a financial collapse that has been ongoing since 2008 and has been hidden from public view. Read More.
Since its peak into year-end, VIX has collapsed from over 36 to almost a 10 handle last Thursday as The Fed’s flip-flop re-energized the sell-vol-at-all-costs trade that has become the bread-and-butter of so many of newly-minted ‘gurus’ in this market. Read More.
The US stock market is slightly overbought (which is not a positive in terms of head room for more of a rally). It’s massively built up on debt that is now more expensive to maintain and/or obtain. Read More.
The US stock market is slightly overbought (which is not a positive in terms of head room for more of a rally).
It’s massively built up on debt that is now more expensive to maintain and/or obtain.
In this article, I explain why I expect the third and final leg of the crash that began in October 2018 to occur in October 2019, or sooner, and see the S&P 500 fall ~30% to lower lows ~2100-2200. Read More.
The recent collapse in world trade volume is the worst since the financial crisis and as dangerous as during the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, according to The Telegraph.
Data from the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis revealed that world trade volume dropped 1.8% in the three months to January compared to the preceding three months as a synchronized global downturn gained momentum. Read More.
The U.S. economy looks strong right now, with unemployment at a multi-decade low and inflation running very close to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. That said, there’s always a multitude of risks — a housing slump, a sharp decline in foreign demand for U.S. goods, an extended government shutdown — that could put the expansion to an end. Read More.
It’s been more than 10 years since the last economic recession. Since the U.S. economy generally operates in cycles, it looks like the time is drawing near for another.
In fact, late last year the Dow Jones took a dive, but that was likely just an appetizer for the course to come. Read More.
Financial markets seem to have a great deal of confidence in the effectiveness of central bank monetary policy — in the sense that by keeping interest rates low, or bring interest rates down, the economies will keep expanding and asset prices, in particular, will keep rising. There is, however, good reason for savers and investors alike to think very carefully about the truth value of such a proposition. Read More.